In terms of selling, I sell when either a) my thesis is broken/wrong, or b) when my thesis is proved true and everyone can see it in the financials, and the price reflects it, and the technical analysis suggests it is a good time to sell. Every situation is different - one can’t be too strict with rules of when to sell. It also needs to fit ones psychology.
So at the moment, I’m selling early because I think there is a market downturn coming and don’t want to hold through it. I will probably lose out on some gains, but my capital will be preserved.
In regards to screening…I sometimes understand a macro trend and so look for a stock that will benefit from it. e.g. energy costs are higher, therefore I looked at solar stocks.
But most of the time I just look through lots of companies’ business plans and see if I think I believe it or not and how the market may react. I work in a field where I have written and reviewed many business plans over many years, so use that experience.
On top of my instinct gained from experience, I do have some principles and a checklist I follow but don’t really want to share on a public forum as my strategy is not one that I’ve ever read about, i.e. I don’t do value, growth, GARP, magic formula, compounders etc. etc.
One thing I will say is that the best opportunities I think are in small caps, because the big investors/funds don’t fish there. They are definitely more volatile though so I do think one needs to be very careful about it…it’s easier to lose money than to make it.
Bought a 5% position in LON:TGA Thungela at 1623. Basically a replacement for RE4 that I sold a while ago, and essentially the same thing as ASX:WHC, i.e. coal.
Sold half my position in WHC for 118% profit in 6 months. I did a review of it at the weekend and it’s run up a lot and there are some other things I feel more comfortable about investing into.
While I’m waiting for the market to stop going down, I’ve got my cash earning 3% fixed income return in a halal bank in the UK. In general, this I think is the best halal place for capital at the moment.
Still on the lookout for buying stocks…just being extra careful still.
Sold WHC for 8.04. 76% return
Sold TGA for 1149. -29% return
Bought ASRT at 2.91, increasing position to 10%
Bought DAC at 60.77, increasing position to 10%